World Economic and Market Outlook - January 2026

The year ahead matters. Economic and market conditions are being shaped simultaneously by political change, shifting trade relationships, evolving monetary policy and rapid technological development. These influences create uncertainty, but they also reflect an environment in which economies and markets have shown a notable capacity to adapt. As we enter 2026, the balance of evidence points not to fragility, but to resilience.

This World Economic & Market Outlook is therefore both comprehensive and detailed. It draws on a wide range of economic data, policy analysis and market evidence to assess the global landscape in a measured and grounded way. By design, it is a long and technical document, intended as a reference for those who wish to engage with the underlying drivers shaping markets rather than relying on headline narratives.

To assist readers, we have included a concise Executive Summary at the outset. This distils the key themes, risks and implications for investors, providing a clear entry point before engaging with the more detailed analysis that follows. Some readers may choose to rely primarily on this summary, while others may use it as a guide through the full report.

While uncertainties remain, the overall tone of this outlook is reasonably benign. Growth is uneven but ongoing, policy is becoming less restrictive, and corporate profitability remains robust. In this context, the purpose of this report is not to predict outcomes with precision, but to provide perspective, highlight the factors that matter most, and support informed decision-making in a complex but broadly supportive environment.

The global economy enters 2026 in better shape than many feared it would a year ago. Despite sharp political shocks, trade tensions and frequent market volatility, growth has held up and corporate profits have remained robust. Equity markets delivered solid returns in 2025, though outcomes varied widely depending on region and currency. For non-US investors, a weaker US dolar negatively impacted returns from American assets, while Europe and emerging markets benefited from a long-awaited rebound.

The central theme is resilience rather than acceleration. The world is not booming, but it is coping. Recession risks look low for 2026, helped by easing interest rates in the US, continued fiscal spending in Europe, and a powerful wave of investment linked to artificial inte ligence (AI).

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TierOne World Economic & Market Outlook January 2026 .pdf

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